Tropical Storm Nate Poses Weekend Threat to Gulf Coast, Likely as Minor Hurricane

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Tropical Storm Nate formed Thursday morning in the southwestern Caribbean, and early forecast models show it taking aim this weekend at the central US Gulf Coast, likely as a minor hurricane, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Nate’s forecast track also had shifted slightly west by midmorning Thursday, putting New Orleans — with its compromised drainage system — directly in the storm’s sights.

Anyone with Columbus Day weekend plans in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama should pay very close attention, as a hurricane landfall in that region looks likely, CNN meteorologists said.

Nicaragua and Honduras at risk

Nate’s maximum sustained winds had increased by Thursday to 40 mph, with the storm forecast to remain close to that intensity all day as it moves inland over Nicaragua and Honduras, they said.

While over land in Central America, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are possible, the hurricane center reported. Extreme rainfall totals of 15 to 20 inches are possible in Nicaragua, with up to 8 inches in Honduras.

TRACK TROPICAL STORM NATE

It’s likely to strengthen Friday as it moves back into the Caribbean, CNN forecasters said.

Rapid intensification possible

Once Nate moves back over the warm waters of the western Caribbean, more strengthening is expected, as well as an increase in forward speed. The forecast brings Nate near the Yucatan Peninsula which would inhibit strengthening in the short term until it moves out into open waters in the Gulf of Mexico.

Once the storm moves into the warm waters of the Gulf, it has the potential for “rapid intensification” meaning conditions are just right and would allow the cyclone to gain strength quickly.

“Rapid intensification is a possibility over the northwestern Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico while the system is traversing rather warm and deep waters,” the National Hurricane Center said Wednesday.

Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Jose, and Maria all underwent rapid intensification on their way to becoming major hurricanes earlier this season.

Tropical Storm #Nate may threaten Gulf Coast this weekend https://t.co/aveIyxxwoJ http://pic.twitter.com/A1CKMpLWyD

— CNN (@CNN) October 5, 2017

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